A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
